R: Seasonal ensemble forecast of European average summer...

eurotempforecast {SpecsVerification} | R Documentation

## Seasonal ensemble forecast of European average summer temperature

### Description

A hindcast dataset of average European (30N,75N,12.5W,42.5E) summer (June/July/August) surface temperatures. Forecasts were initialised in May the same year. Observations and 15-member ensemble forecasts were derived from the publicly available NCEP Reanalysis (Suranjana, 2010) and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (Suranjana, 2014), respectively. The data was downloaded through the ECOMS User Data Gateway (Santander Meteorology Group, 2015).

### Usage

    data(eurotempforecast)

### Format

Variables contained in the data set:

- 'obs' average European summer temperature observations

- 'ens' mean-debiased ensemble forecast data, i.e. mean(ens) == mean(obs)

- 'obs.lag' the observations lagged by one year, same length as 'obs'

- 'obs.bin' binary observations (0 or 1), obs[i] = 1 indicates that the temperature of year i exceeded the temperature of year i-1

- 'ens.bin' binary ensemble forecast (each member is either 0 or 1), ens[i, j] = 1 if the j-th ensemble member in year i exceeded the observed temperature of year i-1

- 'obs.cat' categorical observations. obs.cat[i] is either 1, 2, and 3, indicating that the temperature in year i was lower, similar, higher than temperature in year i-1. Similar is defined as within a half degree interval centered around last years temperature.

- 'ens.cat' categorical ensemble forecast. ens.cat[i, j] is either 1, 2, or 3. The categories are defined as for 'obs.cat'.

### References

Saha, Suranjana, and Coauthors, 2010: The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91, 1015.1057. doi: 10.1175/2010BAMS3001.1 Saha, Suranjana and Coauthors, 2014: The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2. J. Clim., 27, 2185–2208, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00823.1 Santander Meteorology Group (2015). ecomsUDG.Raccess: R interface to the ECOMS User Data Gateway. R package version 4.2-0. http://meteo.unican.es/trac/wiki/udg/ecoms

[Package SpecsVerification version 0.5-3 Index]